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1st Presidential Debate Breakdown

So who won the debate, you ask? I would pose this question: What did you hear?

There is an old saying that goes: “Show me who your friends are and I’ll tell you who you are.” As far as who “won” the debate, it simply comes down to this… which channel did you tune into after the event? Fox News (and Trump himself) would tell you that he performed wonderfully while pretty much EVERY other network would tell you Hillary took the night.

I believe it was either a draw or Hillary had a SLIGHT edge. Here’s why…

Hillary seemed more polished, naturally, because she is a grizzled veteran who has cut her teeth in politics. She deserves credit for standing tall when pressured about her email scandal. I respect her saying it was a “mistake” and she regretted it. Life has shown us that the High Road is often the avenue less traveled by those in the spotlight–even though traffic flows as easily as a Sunday morning commute once on it (just ask Andy Pettite). Trump, on the other hand, continued to permeate the message that he is an agent of change and an outsider looking to correct what career politicians like Hillary could not. Trump’s “rough around the edges” persona is a breath of fresh air to his supporters and a warning sign to his detractors. These debates are all about one thing: TRUMP’S TEMPERAMENT. You can keep all the minutiae regarding policy and facts. It’s eyewash. I doubt half the things that are said on either side will ever get done.

This debate can be considered a draw because Independent voters will remain on the fence. We know that they are intrigued by Trump because if they weren’t the race wouldn’t even be close. If you’re still undecided it’s largely because you just want reassurance that Trump’s disposition is not a “total disaster” (Trump voice). Hillary’s foremost argument is that Trump is a loose cannon. She is looking to push this notion and allow the fear mongering of the media to take hold. Trump did JUST enough to keep his head above water in this regard and if it continues he has a real chance at winning. For his first debate of this magnitude against a shark like Hillary Clinton, he fared OK.

With all that said, regardless of how you may feel, the theoretical “winner” of this particular debate is irrelevant–hate to break it to you. There will be two more debates and, at this juncture, NEITHER candidate (mainly Trump) is dead and buried. There is still plenty to be determined.

Am I crazy? I’d like to think not. But I’m more interested in what the odds makers think and if you’re reading this… you may be too. Casinos care about money and only money because, guess what, bank accounts don’t have political biases.

Let’s take a look at the line movement thus far. On August 18th, odds heavily favored the Democrats to win the election. If you wanted to bet on Hillary, you would’ve had to risk a steep $4.50 for every dollar you intended to win. Conversely, oddsmakers encouraged you to take the underdog by offering you $3.25 for every dollar you were willing to wager on Trump winning the Presidency.

In just over one month’s time the price was dramatically different. Less than an hour before the debate was set to begin on September 26th, the odds makers still favored Hillary but now you only had to risk $2.15 for every dollar you wished to earn. Trump’s odds therefore improved and cut his payout nearly in half to $1.75 per dollar risked. The Trump bump was due to a perfect storm in a variety of ways. There were more ISIS- inspired attacks on American soil, Hillary fell ill with Pneumonia, and who could forget about all those damn “deplorables”?

If you’re reading this, chances are I’m sound asleep. I have been up all night feverishly awaiting the first post-debate line much in the way an 8 year old on Christmas Eve awaits Santa Claus! As of 5:00 a.m. on September 27th, the odds have been moderately adjusted in Hillary’s favor meaning odds makers agree she slightly won the debate. Her price has relatively spiked to where one must risk $2.50 for every dollar of intended profit. The Donald has seen his odds decrease. For every dollar wagered on Trump, one would earn $1.90 in return.

How should you, looking to increase your bankroll, think about this process moving forward?

At this point, if you’re realistically thinking about betting on the election, you already know who you think is going to win. There isn’t much anyone can say to sway your decision so Price Manipulation is what you want to focus on. There are two schools of thought for each side depending on who you believe will win.

Let’s start with those who think Hillary will be elected President. She will either continue to widen her edge in the coming debates due to Trump’s seemingly haphazard behavior OR the race will grow closer due to questions about Benghazi and further pressure about her emails (topics not heavily touched on in the first debate). If you believe she will broaden her lead – bet Hillary NOW! Her price will only rise and you could be staring at worse than 3-to-1 odds before you know it. However, if you think the race will swing back in Trump’s direction BUT Hillary will still win… wait until after the second or even third debate to take the wager as this may offer more value IF you forecast the momentum shift correctly.
The same principles apply if you would like to wager on Trump to be our next President. If you think the second debate will tip the scales in Trump’s favor – get “The Donald” wager in NOW! There’s plenty of value at the nearly 2-to-1 payout that this underdog offers if you think the odds will swing back and represent this being anybody’s race. However, if you think media outlets will twist the message and misrepresent the odds being in Hillary’s favor… wait to take Trump and hope the silent majority shows up to vote on November 8th. If you accurately forecast this, the payout could be huge… unlikely… but, after all, wouldn’t that be a fitting way for this election to end.

Yours Truly

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2 thoughts on “1st Presidential Debate Breakdown

  1. SDot

    I love the angle. Seems like the sharp money should be on Hilary right now given the price and this Trump momentum that likely will slowdown given his performance last night. Thanks for the perspective.

    1. Unless the silent majority……
      -Jack S

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