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NFL Week 17 Spread Locks

The Locks

Jets (+15) over PATRIOTS

There is little to no doubt about the outcome of this game. The Patriots win and they clinch homefield throughout the playoffs. Tom Brady and the top ranked Pats offense will have their foot on the gas from the jump. There will be a slight respect factor for this young Jets team that forced them to play four quarters last time they met in New Jersey.

The main difference between that game and this game is Dion Lewis. Over the last five games Dion is averaging 101 scrimmage yards and a touchdown per game. His dynamic ability allows Brady to have a traditional run game while also spreading the ball around. He should be the deciding factor in this one and it wouldn’t surprise me for Belichick to pull his starters once the game is well in hand. I’m taking the points here simply because laying 15 points is just stupid and the Jets have been feisty all season.

Prediction: Jets 17, Patriots 27

Browns (+6) over STEELERS

Now or never. If the Browns cannot beat a Steelers team that is resting their best player (Le’Veon Bell), without their second-best player (Antonio Brown) and their quarterback (Ben Roethlisberger) they deserve the designation as worst team ever.

How Hue Jackson was able to survive such an atrocious season is beyond my comprehension. No pro roster is built for zero wins. Todd Bowles’ Jets–who were actually projected to go 0-16–got five wins, you’re telling me the Browns couldn’t get one? Sure DeShone Kizer is what a Madden player looks like when Awareness is at zero. But my guy can’t fall into a win? C.J. Beathard won a game this year. I think it all falls back to Jackson who should be coaching for his job tomorrow.

There should be high stakes for the Browns. The Steelers have decided rest is a better use of time then playing against the Browns. At some point pride has to kick in right?

Prediction: Browns 24, Steelers 23

Jaguars (+2.5) over TITANS

The Titans absolutely stink. If football gods exist then they will make sure the Chargers are the sixth seed and not this sorry sack of shit team. I think Todd Gurley’s cleats are still up Mike Mularkey’s ass. Gurley massacred his defense to the tune of 276 total yards from scrimmage and a pair of receiving touchdowns. The offense was mildly better but they will be without DeMarco Murray.

Unlike the Titans, the Jaguars are a good football team. The phrase “they’re a quarterback away” is usually tongue-in-cheek, but is literally the case with the Jags. For what it’s worth Blake Bortles hasn’t been terrible. He still does not have the trust of his team especially if they fall behind. The good news is they have the best defense in the league.

Last week Jimmy G carved them up and handed them an asswhooping they hadn’t suffered since Week 2. You know who they played in that 37-16 Week 2 beatdown? The Titans. Revenge can be the quite the motivator as can pride which is where the Jags defense took the biggest hit last week. I expect that defense to swarm Marcus Mariota all day as they head into the playoffs on a good note.

Prediction: Jaguars 21, Titans 13

49ers (-4) over RAMS

I’ve got three words for you. Jimmy. Fucking. G. If you were skeptical before I don’t know what more evidence you need. Facing the best defense in the league Jimmy G. was unfazed. He threw for 242 yards with a pair of touchdowns to only one interception and a rushing touchdown, as his offense put up 44 points (21 in the fourth). Oh, and Jimmy G,’s completion percentage this season? 69.

You know what has been underreported during this surprising Rams season? Todd Gurley’s ‘F You’ season. Last year he was the butt of every fantasy owner’s joke. He was deep fried on Twitter.

Gurley eventually found the end zone this season. He found it 19 times. He’s my MVP if we’re being honest. Jared Goff improved considerably, but take Gurley out and this offense is nowhere near as potent. That’s what made head coach Sean McVay’s decision to sit Gurley, Goff and Aaron Donald understandable. They have the talent to make a legitimate Super Bowl run if certain dominoes align. The first is trying to fall to the fourth seed so they can possible get the Eagles in the Divisional round instead of going to Minnesota.

Prediction: 49ers 27, Rams 10

The Other Guys

Packers (+7) over LIONS
COLTS (-5.5) over Texans
VIKINGS (-12) over Bears
Redskins (-3.5) over GIANTS
Cowboys (-3) over EAGLES
Panthers (+3.5) over FALCONS
RAVENS (-9.5) over Bengals
DOLPHINS (+2.5) over Bills
CHARGERS (+7) over Raiders
Saints (-6) over BUCCANEERS
BRONCOS (-4) over Chiefs
Cardinals (+8.5) over SEAHAWKS

Last Week: 13-2-1
Overall: 109-100-7

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